Great Power Deterrence: The Threat of an American Blockade at the Strait of Malacca

Abstract

The evolving relationship between the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is the defining event of our geopolitical era. This paper explores the strategic posture of the United States toward the PRC, with a particular focus on China's fossil fuel-related insecurity and American strategy to leverage this vulnerability. The Strait of Malacca is a vital maritime choke point for Chinese fossil fuel imports. This paper argues that the threat of an American blockade of Chinese imports at the Strait of Malacca exemplifies a successful deterrent against serious Chinese military aggression. The United States has the requisite military capabilities to blockade the Strait of Malacca, even when the considerations of proximity and third-party involvement are accounted for. In the event of such a blockade, fossil fuel inputs would be restricted from China to an extent that the industrial Chinese economy would fail in its most basic functions. By threatening a blockade at the Strait of Malacca, the United States deters a significant Chinese military escalation.