The Impact of Trumpian Trade on Canadian Agriculture: Evidence from Commodity Analyses

Abstract

It is generally understood that Canada’s close trading relationship with the United States helps power its export-dependent economy. This understanding was challenged in the wake of the US-China trade war that began in 2018. The trade war, which created opportunities for countries to fill the void left by American products in the Chinese market, was a chance for Canada to sink its teeth into China’s need for agricultural commodities. By examining Canada’s trading relationship with China during the trade war at a commodity level across five different products, this paper ascertains the factors that determined why Canadian lobster fishers jumped for joy while canola farmers floundered. This examination exposes how Canada-China tensions arose because Canada’s extradition with the US severely depressed its ability to sell certain agricultural goods to China.